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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."